One might expect Donald Trump to be concerned about gas prices. Less than two months out from the midterms, gas costs 37 percent more than it did a year ago. Home-heating oil was up 52 percent as of August, and diesel is up a staggering 69 percent. None of those numbers are likely to go down significantly as long as the Iran war drags on. Meanwhile, just last week, a Saudi oil pipeline that carries about 4 percent of the global oil supply shut down after being bombed. (No one has claimed credit for the attack.)But Trump says he isn’t worried. Speaking with reporters last week, he insisted that the U.S., not Iran, is in control of the Strait of Hormuz. “Right after the election,” he said, “oil prices are going to be tumbling downward.”Even if that prediction were based on anything resembling fact, the timing would be too late to do Trump much good. Political scientists tend to agree that gas prices influence voter behavior. Although many voters no doubt understand that the president isn’t usually directly responsible for the price of oil, this time, he is. In fact, the oil shock related to Trump’s war of choice with Iran is the only reason the U.S. has any inflation to speak of. Inflation in all non-energy consumer purchases is at just 2 percent over the past year. If Democrats manage to take back the House and Senate in November, despite an inhospitable electoral map, the Trump effect on gas prices may well be the reason.[Jonathan Chait: Does Trump want Republicans to win the midterms?]Voters hate inflation, and gas prices are especially hard to tune out. Juan Felipe Riaño, an economist who has studied inflation’s political consequences, told me that voters understand that price increases translate into lower real wages. The more they drive, the more pronounced the effect. People who live in rural areas and exurbs have the most to lose, because they have the longest commutes. These are the reddest parts of the country, meaning that they are home to millions of voters whom Democrats are trying to persuade to vote blue. According to a Brookings Institution analysis, the average voter in a Republican-held district drives 26 percent more miles than their counterpart in a Democratic district. Other research has found that those with longer drive times are more likely to hold the president accountable for increases in… [TheTopNews] Read More.
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