Illustration: Lex Villena Few Americans have taken much notice, given the vast amount of other political news. But two Canadian provinces - Alberta and Quebec - may be holding referendums on secession in the near future. If the votes are held, the secessionists are likely to lose in both cases. But these events are still of interest to students of federalism and secession, and to anyone who cares about the future of America's northern neighbor and one of our most important allies. And history shows that secession movements often persist even after defeat in a referendum. In Quebec, the separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) is leading in the polls and favored to take power in the upcoming October provincial election. They promise to hold a secession referendum if they prevail. Their victory is far from completely certain, given Quebec's complex five party system, and the closeness of the polls. The PQ, the Quebec Liberal Party and the current ruling party - the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) - are all within a few points of each other in recent polls. If the PQ wins, they may only get a minority government (one that has a plurality of seats in the legislature, but not a majority), which will make it difficult for them to pass a law to hold the referendum. Nonetheless, a PQ majority government could well happen - about a 35% chance according to data compiled by prominent Canadian polling analyst Phillipe Fournier at his Canada 338 site. If the PQ does manage to win the election and hold a secession referendum, the "no" side is highly likely to win, as happened with two previous PQ-led secession votes in 1980 and 1995. Recent polls indicate "no" leads by about a 2-1 margin. Nonetheless, holding a referendum would bring the issue of Quebec secession back to the center of Canadian politics, and increase tension between the provincial and federal governments. In Alberta, the United Conservative Party (UCP) government of Premier Danielle Smith has approved a voter petition to place a secession-related referendum question on the ballot this fall, scheduled for a vote on October 19. However, the question at issue is not a straightforward up-or-down vote on secession. It actually asks voters to opine on the following: "Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a… [TheTopNews] Read More.
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