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- Should We Ever Trust Polls Again?
The credibility of polling took a massive hit this month, as polling averages were off the mark by double-digits in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary and Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. Before these contests, in a July column on the heels of the Graham Platner implosion, I flagged my concerns with the state of the polling industry: “since high-quality polling has become more expensive, as it has become harder to get potential respondents to pick up the phone, fewer media outlets in an age of declining local news are producing their own surveys.” That has created a vacuum being filled by new pollsters without proven records and the campaigns themselves which try to shape perceptions by publishing so-called internal polls. And as we’ve seen, polling can impact reality. Drying up fundraising. Dissuading volunteers. Sapping staff morale. Prompting candidates to quit. When Mandela Barnes suspended his campaign for Wisconsin governor on July 30, he said, “It’s become very clear who our nominee is going to be,” implying Assemblywoman Francesca Hong was a lock. The last five polls published before he quit—all taken after Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez dropped out over a campaign finance debacle and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley reversed his own withdrawal—averaged Hong at 40 percent, Barnes at 21, and Crowley at 12. Crowley would end up beating Hong in the primary, 39.8 to 39.3. When Maine Governor Janet Mills suspended her campaign for U.S. Senate in late April, bowing to what looked like a Platner juggernaut, she acknowledged, “I very simply do not have the one thing political campaigns unfortunately require today: the financial resources.” But a sitting governor would not have any problem raising money if she wasn’t behind by an average of 33 points in the prior month of polling, most of which came from sources tied to the Platner campaign. One wag on X observed, as the surprising Wisconsin results rolled in, “So was Janet Mills even actually down when she dropped out?” Probably, but maybe not by an insurmountable 33 points, and maybe there was time to mount a comeback. Does this mean that polling is beyond redemption? No, we have primaries this cycle where the poll aggregates accurately depicted the state of the race, such as Georgia’s Republican Senate primary and California’s open gubernatorial primary. There is even an internal pollster, Public Policy Polling, which, as noted in Wednesday’s Washington Monthly… [TheTopNews] Read More.23 hours ago - The Housing Bill Trump Shrugged Off Is Only Half the Answer
At midnight on July 11, the most significant housing legislation since 1990 took effect without the president’s signature. He called the “21st Century ROAD to Housing Act” “a big yawn,” and canceled the signing ceremony. At a time when Americans are deeply worried about the cost of housing and homeownership is slipping beyond the reach of many families, Trump let the biggest bipartisan housing achievement in a generation become law unsigned on his desk. The bill was a remarkable and rare example of bipartisan legislating, passing both chambers of Congress by enormous margins. It’s a triumph for the build-more “abundance” movement, placing a federal-sized bet that deregulation will remove enough friction in the system to unlock the massive supply needed to address our affordable housing crisis. The bill’s central idea is that the best thing the federal government can do is get out of its own way—an understandable premise, given how distant Washington is from any actual construction site. And the bill really did enact meaningful reforms by streamlining environmental review, funding preapproved housing blueprints, finally removing the requirement that manufactured houses have to sit on a permanent chassis, and putting in place a first-of-its-kind limitation on how institutional investors can participate in the housing market. But I question the central premise that the best the federal government can do is merely get out of the way. Conventional wisdom is that all housing policy is local, and that the federal government’s role in housing is minimal. But that calculation is wrong: the president holds the keys to dramatically accelerating and scaling up housing; that’s because, while land-use decisions are local, housing finance is national. For example, the next round of federal action could draw from an approach that is already working across the country: build affordable housing for the long term through community-owned housing. The model is simple. You own your home and get a conventional mortgage from a regular lender. A nonprofit community land trust owns the land underneath it. Taking the land out of the deal lowers your price; in return, you agree to cap your equity gains, keeping the home affordable for the next family. This isn’t for everyone. It’s for families in high-cost markets getting crushed by rent but locked out of ownership by sky-high down payments—people whose real choice isn’t between capped equity and full equity, but between capped equity and renting forever. For them, a stable and affordable payment and equity that grows with every mortgage payment provide a way to… [TheTopNews] Read More.23 hours ago - Harry Enten Says Republicans Should Be ‘Running Scared’ In Midterms ...
Enten noted that turnout in Democratic primaries should worry the Republicans in the House. [TheTopNews] Read More.23 hours ago - ‘You’re Breaking The Rules!’: Sean Hannity REALLY Doesn’...The Fox News host didn’t seem ready for this one. [TheTopNews] Read More.24 hours ago
- Sensitive medical data sent over unencrypted pager network
NHS Blood and Transplant apologises after sensitive data sent over unencrypted pager network. [TheTopNews] Read More.1 day ago
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The credibility of polling took a massive hit this month, as polling averages were off the mark by double-digits in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary and Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. Before these contests, in a July column on the heels of the Graham Platner implosion, I flagged my concerns with the state of the polling industry: “since high-quality polling has become more expensive, as it has become harder to get potential respondents to pick up the phone, fewer media outlets in an age of declining local news are producing their own surveys.” That has created a vacuum being filled by new pollsters without proven records and the campaigns themselves which try to shape perceptions by publishing so-called internal polls. And as we’ve seen, polling can impact reality. Drying up fundraising. Dissuading volunteers. Sapping staff morale. Prompting candidates to quit. When Mandela Barnes suspended his campaign for Wisconsin governor on July 30, he said, “It’s become very clear who our nominee is going to be,” implying Assemblywoman Francesca Hong was a lock. The last five polls published before he quit—all taken after Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez dropped out over a campaign finance debacle and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley reversed his own withdrawal—averaged Hong at 40 percent, Barnes at 21, and Crowley at 12. Crowley would end up beating Hong in the primary, 39.8 to 39.3. When Maine Governor Janet Mills suspended her campaign for U.S. Senate in late April, bowing to what looked like a Platner juggernaut, she acknowledged, “I very simply do not have the one thing political campaigns unfortunately require today: the financial resources.” But a sitting governor would not have any problem raising money if she wasn’t behind by an average of 33 points in the prior month of polling, most of which came from sources tied to the Platner campaign. One wag on X observed, as the surprising Wisconsin results rolled in, “So was Janet Mills even actually down when she dropped out?” Probably, but maybe not by an insurmountable 33 points, and maybe there was time to mount a comeback. Does this mean that polling is beyond redemption? No, we have primaries this cycle where the poll aggregates accurately depicted the state of the race, such as Georgia’s Republican Senate primary and California’s open gubernatorial primary. There is even an internal pollster, Public Policy Polling, which, as noted in Wednesday’s Washington Monthly… [TheTopNews] Read More.
23 hours ago
At midnight on July 11, the most significant housing legislation since 1990 took effect without the president’s signature. He called the “21st Century ROAD to Housing Act” “a big yawn,” and canceled the signing ceremony. At a time when Americans are deeply worried about the cost of housing and homeownership is slipping beyond the reach of many families, Trump let the biggest bipartisan housing achievement in a generation become law unsigned on his desk. The bill was a remarkable and rare example of bipartisan legislating, passing both chambers of Congress by enormous margins. It’s a triumph for the build-more “abundance” movement, placing a federal-sized bet that deregulation will remove enough friction in the system to unlock the massive supply needed to address our affordable housing crisis. The bill’s central idea is that the best thing the federal government can do is get out of its own way—an understandable premise, given how distant Washington is from any actual construction site. And the bill really did enact meaningful reforms by streamlining environmental review, funding preapproved housing blueprints, finally removing the requirement that manufactured houses have to sit on a permanent chassis, and putting in place a first-of-its-kind limitation on how institutional investors can participate in the housing market. But I question the central premise that the best the federal government can do is merely get out of the way. Conventional wisdom is that all housing policy is local, and that the federal government’s role in housing is minimal. But that calculation is wrong: the president holds the keys to dramatically accelerating and scaling up housing; that’s because, while land-use decisions are local, housing finance is national. For example, the next round of federal action could draw from an approach that is already working across the country: build affordable housing for the long term through community-owned housing. The model is simple. You own your home and get a conventional mortgage from a regular lender. A nonprofit community land trust owns the land underneath it. Taking the land out of the deal lowers your price; in return, you agree to cap your equity gains, keeping the home affordable for the next family. This isn’t for everyone. It’s for families in high-cost markets getting crushed by rent but locked out of ownership by sky-high down payments—people whose real choice isn’t between capped equity and full equity, but between capped equity and renting forever. For them, a stable and affordable payment and equity that grows with every mortgage payment provide a way to… [TheTopNews] Read More.
23 hours ago
Enten noted that turnout in Democratic primaries should worry the Republicans in the House. [TheTopNews] Read More.
23 hours ago
The Fox News host didn’t seem ready for this one. [TheTopNews] Read More.
24 hours ago
NHS Blood and Transplant apologises after sensitive data sent over unencrypted pager network. [TheTopNews] Read More.
1 day ago
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