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- Nate Silver Brawls With Kalshi CEO Over Who Deserves Credit on Forecasting the E...
Screenshot via Still Counting He wouldn’t bet on it. Polling expert Nate Silver was quick to spoil the party for Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour after Mansour took to X to crow about his company’s performance in predicting the historic outcome of the 2026 midterms. Mansour posted on X Wednesday night, offering a lengthy look at how Kalshi and other prediction markets did handling the midterm elections. More than $2.5 billion was traded on Kalshi in regard to the midterms, according to reports. The CEO framed his missive as the “people” sticking it to the “elites,” writing in part, “Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands.” But Silver wasn’t having it. He reposted Mansour’s long note and added an incredulous response. “Give me a break, the polls and models provided the direction in contast [sic] to vibes and dumb insiders. And yes it’s good that traders were smart enough to trust them. But the better election models were more confident about the outcome than the markets and got there more quickly,” he wrote on X. Read Mansour’s note in full: Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands. I have spent a ton of time in DC over the last few months. The elites were certain the markets were off. I heard many variants of “no chance markets are right about X” and “I’ve been in politics for a decade. ‘These people’ don’t really know much.” Last night, ‘these people’ beat the elites. Prediction market favorites won 479 of the first 487 races. That’s 98%. The elites live in a bubble. They theorize, write, ideate, and mistake credentials for an understanding of lives they’ve never lived. They don’t see and feel what the everyday man, on the ground, sees and feels. Knowledge is not exclusive to the elites but scattered across millions of people. Someone knows their hometown better than any national pundit. Someone has followed a local race passionately for months. Someone has followed a local race dispassionately for months. Someone notices a shift in their community before it makes the headlines. Someone is shaped by an incident at work. Someone is shaped by what’s getting harder or easier for their families. Each holds a piece of the picture that no expert can see in full. And for the longest time, that knowledge had no way to reach the rest of the world.… [TheTopNews] Read More.4 hours ago - Americans wary of AI for medical care and insurance claims
Most Americans have qualms about using AI in healthcare for tasks such as diagnosis and treatment, Pew Research poll finds. [TheTopNews] Read More.4 hours ago - Bolsonaro’s Escape From Brazil Was Aided by Milei Adviser at Argentine Airport
A top adviser to President Javier Milei of Argentina met Flávio Bolsonaro, the defeated Brazilian presidential candidate, at an Argentine airport, three people involved in the operation said. [TheTopNews] Read More.4 hours ago - Gap in Milwaukee County budget comes to light day after Crowley’s election
The day after Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley’s historic election as governor of Wisconsin, a $4.6 million gap in next year’s budget was disclosed. According to reports, the shortfall came about through an issue with automated process used during the budget making process. The money represents a fraction of a percent of the county’s projected $1.5 billion 2027 budget. Crowley’s office said the Office of Strategy, Budget, and Performance corrected the formula to prevent it from happening again. They plan to use offset the gap including using additional prescription drug rebates, unused capital project funds closing next year, and departmental operating budget surpluses. The Milwaukee County Board of Supervisors are set to vote on the budget today, November 5. The post Gap in Milwaukee County budget comes to light day after Crowley’s election appeared first on WIZM 92.3FM 106.7FM 1410AM. [TheTopNews] Read More.4 hours ago - House Dem Propped Up as 2028 White House Contender After GOP Trounced in Midterm...
(Photo by Oliver Contreras/Sipa USA)(Sipa via AP Images) Allies of Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) launched a campaign to draft the California lawmaker into the 2028 presidential race, according to new reports, just two days after his party swept to victory in the midterm elections. NBC News reported on Thursday that the committee, called “Run Ro” will begin fundraising and organizing as Democrats turn their attention to the 2028 election. The new group is led by former Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and progressive strategist Nomiki Konst, who are seeking to build financial and political support for Khanna before he decides whether to seek the White House. “By launching now, we are trying to ensure that the presidential primary debate is framed from a progressive populist perspective,” Konst told the network. “The centrists organize and strategize early,” she continued. “They have their donors, corporate consultants and leaders lined up for years. Building off the lessons of past primaries, our goal is to channel the progressive energy into a vessel for organizing and spreading our winning message early, as we can’t wait for the politics to line up.” Khanna has spent recent months traveling to early primary states and raising his national profile in cable news interviews while being part of bipartisan efforts pushing for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files and ending the Iran war. He is a fifth-term congressman with past experience as co-chair to the Bernie Sanders 2020 presidential campaign. Responding to the initiative, Khanna welcomed the support but stopped short of announcing a candidacy. “I’m honored that people are encouraging me to run on a platform of Medicare for All, ending foreign wars and taxing the billionaires,” he told NBC News. “We need America’s Next New Deal. Whether I run or support someone else is something I will decide with my family after the holidays.” No Democrat has formally entered the 2028 presidential contest.The post House Dem Propped Up as 2028 White House Contender After GOP Trounced in Midterms first appeared on Mediaite. [TheTopNews] Read More.4 hours ago - America Finally Has the Votes to End the Electoral College
Tuesday’s wave election swept Democrats into power in Congress. But the most seismic result for American politics and democracy may come out of the battleground states where Democrats just won trifecta control by taking both state houses and the governor’s mansion: Come January, Democratic legislators will have the votes to elect the next president by the popular vote. State lawmakers could circumvent the Electoral College by enacting what’s known as the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Under the current system, each state gets a set number of electors, and the candidate who wins enough states to accumulate at least 270 electoral votes becomes president. This system allows the winner of the popular vote to lose, as Al Gore did in 2000 and Hillary Clinton again in 2016. But the NPVIC would bypass the Electoral College, with each state that enacts the compact awarding its electors to the winner of the national popular vote. The compact would only take effect once states representing a majority of electoral votes sign on, ensuring that the winner of the national popular vote becomes president. “Every voter should be politically relevant. Under the current system, they are not.” In April, Virginia became the 18th state to join the compact, bringing the total number of electoral votes pledged under the proposal to 222. On Tuesday, Democrats took trifecta control of state governments in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. That’s 61 electoral votes. Add in Alaska, where late-arriving votes are still being counted, and that’s 64. With Virginia on board, only 48 more votes are needed for the compact to reach 270 votes and take effect. The emerging math means there is a real chance that the next president is selected based on the national popular vote. That would represent a sea change in American politics. The current Electoral College system violates the basic principle of one person, one vote. Instead of candidates being forced to campaign for every vote, millions of presidential votes in uncompetitive states are effectively wasted in a winner-take-all system. Politicians and donors pour billions of dollars into a handful of battlegrounds, while the votes—and concerns—of most of the country are ignored. “Under the current system, four out of five American voters are on the sidelines,” says Patrick Rosenstiel, a Republican strategist who is advocating for the compact. “Every voter should be politically relevant. Under the current system, they are not.” The… [TheTopNews] Read More.4 hours ago
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